By Dan Bell
The NZD opens at 0.6776.
The Fed have kept rates on hold as expected at 2.00-2.25%. The statement, which was realistically going to be the most interesting thing, was also very similar to last time, leading to very little market movement on the back of it.
Overnight the Kiwi managed to hold onto its gains, following the US Midterm elections. The RBNZ Gov Adrian Orr came with a statement yesterday morning that he is “Not taking a rate cut off the table”. It looks like the market has though, and did not really take this dovish tone too seriously, interpreting the comments as just trying to talk the Kiwi down. At this stage if the next rate move was a cut, it would really surprise the market.
As is the pattern, there have been various reports out of the UK on Brexit, netting out too not that much. We must not get complacent though. An analyst in the UK just came out saying he thought there could be a 15% jump in the Pound on a positive Deal outcome. While these predictions can be hard to make, and the % of movement on a deal is hard to predict, it does highlight the very large event risk that is just round the corner.
RBA Policy statement out at 1:30 today, (though I don’t think anyone is predicting a 15% move on that). Not too much change in the language is expected, however if we get some slight positive tweaks to GDP forecasts, then the AUD could catch a bid.
Global equity markets remain relatively flat- Dow +0.08%, S&P 500 -0.19%, FTSE +0.33%, DAX -0.45%, CAC -0.13%, Nikkei +1.82%, Shanghai -0.22%.
Gold prices are little changed, trading at $1,224 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil have continued the run down, off another -0.9% trading at $61.02 a barrel.
Current indicative rates:
Upcoming Data releases (NZST):
- 13:30 – RBA Monetary Policy Statement
- 20:30 – UK GDP m/m, Manufacturing Production m/m
- 02:30 – US PPI m/m
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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at xe money transfer in Auckland. You can contact him here »